Trump Cannabis Rescheduling: Industry & Market Impact

U.S. Capitol and bullish cannabis stocks highlight market optimism after Trump hints at rescheduling.

Schedule 3? Trump’s Cannabis Shake-Up

Last week, Donald Trump signaled he is considering rescheduling cannabis from Schedule 1 - a classification shared with heroin and deemed more dangerous than cocaine - to Schedule 3, where prescription drugs like Tylenol with codeine reside. This move could open the door to normalized banking, credit card payments at dispensaries, greater patient access, and potentially unlock sidelined investment capital. U.S. cannabis stocks reacted immediately, with some rising nearly 100% over five days before easing slightly in broader market softness. For an industry battered since its 2021 highs, this glimmer of federal reform is sparking cautious optimism.

Political Context and Skepticism

Presidents from both parties have teased cannabis reform, but none have delivered meaningful federal change. Rescheduling is not without risk as it shifts cannabis into a new regulatory category but doesn’t guarantee full legalization. Politically, it would require Trump to own any negative consequences, something few presidents have been willing to risk. Still, this announcement is strategic: Trump’s approval ratings are historically low, and cannabis reform could be an olive branch to a voting bloc increasingly in play. For cannabis advocates and operators, this is both an opportunity and a political test.

The Stock Market’s Roar

Investors hungry for good cannabis news pounced. Over five trading days: $GLASF climbed nearly 24%, $GTBIF jumped 26%, $CURLF surged 65%, and $TCNNF leapt almost 50%. It’s important to remember these gains follow years of declines: $TCNNF traded above $50 in 2021 before bottoming at $3.02 in 2025, closing at $8.11 Thursday, August 14, 2025. These stocks remain deeply undervalued, suggesting room for growth if federal reform gains traction. But without follow-through from the administration, the rally could fade just as quickly as it began.

Why Rescheduling Matters

Moving cannabis to Schedule 3 would ease crushing burdens like IRS Code 280E, which prevents licensed operators from deducting ordinary business expenses. This change could dramatically improve profitability for cultivators, processors, distributors, and retailers nationwide. It would also normalize relationships with banks, allowing credit card acceptance at dispensaries from Orange County cannabis retail to normalized banking for Monterey County processing facilities. While rescheduling wouldn’t necessarily open interstate commerce or legalize adult-use nationally, it would be the most significant federal policy shift since medical cannabis laws first emerged.

Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead

Despite the market buzz, rescheduling is not legalization, and it could create new compliance complexities. Federal oversight under Schedule 3 might mean tighter FDA regulation, potentially impacting small operators who lack compliance infrastructure. There’s also no guarantee that Republicans in Congress, historically anti-cannabis, will support broader reforms. However, rescheduling would likely spur mergers, acquisitions, and real estate demand, from cannabis greenhouses to processing and distribution cannabis real estate. For now, the industry remains in “wait and see” mode.

Industry Implications & Potential Solutions

If Trump follows through, the floodgates for capital could open. Operators positioned with compliant facilities—like King City Processing and Distribution Cannabis Real Estate or Desert Hot Springs Campus Property —will be poised to scale quickly. At Pac Garden Consulting, we help businesses prepare for such shifts, from securing cannabis real estate for sale to structuring acquisitions. The lesson? Prepare now. Those ready for regulatory change will be first in line to benefit when the market accelerates.

Conclusion – Hope Meets Hard Reality

We welcome any administration’s attempt to deliver meaningful cannabis reform. Republicans position themselves as pro-business; it’s time they prove it by supporting legalization that benefits the economy and patients alike. History has taught us to temper expectations, but if Trump delivers on rescheduling, it will be a turning point for the cannabis industry. Until then, we watch, plan, and prepare.